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Industrial output data augur longer recession

A steeper as well as bigger-than-expected fall in Hungary's industrial output in April could mean a longer recession, analysts told MTI on Friday.

Hungary's industrial output dropped an adjusted 25.3% in April, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) said in the morning. The figure was well over the drop estimated by analysts and showed an accelerating decline from 19.6% in March.

CIB Bank's György Barta said it appeared as if the fall in industrial output slowed in March, but the April data confirm that the March data were strongly influenced by the base effect. The drop in output of the automotive sector in April was especially disappointing, considering incentives to purchase new cars being offered by many governments in Europe, he added.

Barta said industrial output was likely to fall in a twelve-month comparison for the whole year.

Erste Bank's Orsolya Nyeste said the accelerated decline in industrial output in April does not bode well for the future, showing downward risk from the point of view of economic growth. The data suggest the recession in Hungary could be longer than earlier thought, she added.

Both analysts said Hungary's economy would probably not contract more than the conservative government projection of 6.7%, in spite of the disappointing April data. (MTI-ECONEWS)