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Goldman Sachs now sees loss of 400,000 jobs in November

Goldman Sachs has revised up its forecast for US job losses in November to 400,000 after reports showing a dismal employment picture in the private sector, particularly in services.


The analysts at Goldman had previously forecast a decline of 350,000 jobs. The median estimate in a Reuters poll conducted on Friday was -320,000. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey fell to a record low, as did its employment index.

“Most reports on employment conditions in November have shown additional weakness relative to earlier months, but today’s ISM report on conditions outside manufacturing was particularly noteworthy,” said Goldman economists in a research note. “The employment index from this report, which has predictive power for payrolls in the top-down models we have developed, fell more than 10 points from a level that was already the lowest on record for this indicator.”

The report also cited weakness in small and medium-sized firms as potentially compounding the pain in the labor market. (Reuters)