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GDP likely to fall further in Q2

Hungary's recession did not bottom out in Q1 and GDP is likely to fall further in Q2, analysts told MTI, after the Central Statistical Office (KSH) published a second reading of GDP data for the period.

Hungary's first-quarter GDP fell an unadjusted 6.7% and a calendar year-adjusted 6.1% from the same period a year earlier, KSH said. Both declines were bigger than the unadjusted 6.4% and the adjusted 5.8% drops in the first reading.

Erste Bank's Orsolya Nyeste said the downward revision was no surprise, noting that all sectors of the economy contracted, though the drop was especially marked in the industrial sector. In addition to the sharp fall in industrial exports, declining domestic demand, investments and output were behind the economic contraction, she added.

ING Bank's Dávid Németh also said the latest data show the recession did not bottom out in Q1. April trade balance data showed the decline in exports continued, dropping almost 30%, as imports fell more than 35% on declining investments, consumption and output. Lower energy prices were part of the reason for the fall in imports, he added. Rising energy prices are likely to result in a smaller drop. (MTI – Econews)