Are you sure?

GDP growth still stands “on one leg”, analysts say

Detailed GDP data published Friday shows Hungary's economic growth continues to be supported by industrial sector exports as domestic consumption remains weak, analysts told MTI.

Hungary's unadjusted year-on-year GDP growth accelerated to 1.9% in Q4 2010 from 1.7% in Q3, the Central Statistical Office (KSH) said in a second reading in the morning. The industrial sector grew 9.7% but total final consumption was down 1.9%.

György Barta of CIB Bank said growth continues to “stand on one leg”, namely industrial exports, as domestic demand remains weak. Growth in 2011 could reach 2.6% as private consumption slowly picks up, however businesses passing on the cost of crisis taxes as well as sluggish lending will have an adverse effect.

Barta said he expected to see economic growth between 3%-3.5% in 2013-14.

Zoltán Török of Raiffeisen Bank predicted 2.5% growth for 2011, with consumption estimated to grow at around 0.5% and economic growth still driven by net exports.

Raiffeisen slightly downgraded its GDP growth estimate for 2012 to 3.5% from the earlier 4%. In 2013-14, Török sees GDP growth of around 4%, backed by major export growth.