Economic research institutes forecast GDP growth between 0% and 0.8% for 2010 and between 3% and 3.1% for next year, while inflation is predicted to be between 4.2-4.4% this year and 2.6-3.2% in 2011.
Ecostat and GKI expect the Hungarian economy to stagnate in 2010, with Pénzügykutató predicting 0.5% and Kopint-Tárki 0.8% growth, while the government's forecast is still 0.2% decline. The analyses consider it possible that economic growth will be higher this year, but all analysts now try to make more conservative predictions, learning the lessons from the experiences of late 2008-early 2009.
All economic researchers expect household consumption to decline in 2010, with Ecostat and P
Pénzügykutató forecasting a 3% decline, GKI a 1.5% fall and Kopint-Tárki a 0.5% drop.
Investments are expected to start growing this year. Ecostat and Pénzügykutató forecast modest increases of between 1.2-1.5%, while Kopint-Tárki predicts 2.0% growth and GKI is the most optimistic with a 3.0% growth figure.
Most economic researchers forecast 11.0% average unemployment for 2010, with only GKI expecting to see slightly lower joblessness at 10.7%.
The forecasts regarding the government deficit reflect the uncertainty arising from the change in government. If the next government continues the Bajnai-government's strict budget policy, the deficit could reach 4.1-4.3% or a maximum 4.5% of the GDP, the analyses predict. If, however, the government begins the consolidation of the state-owned companies, which will require structural reforms, the deficit could rise to 5.0%, provided that is approved by the IMF and the European Union. (MTI-ECONEWS)