Ecostat projects twelve-month consumer price inflation in Hungary will slow to 3.9% in October from 5.1% in May, the economic think tank said in its fresh Mikroszkop report, which gives projections for four months in the future.
Ecostat sees producer prices rising 4.1% in October from the same month a year earlier.
It projects gross average wages will climb 3.8%, as public sector wages inch up 1% and private sector wages rise 5% yr/yr in October.
Industrial output is expected to increase 3.5%, with domestic sales rising 1.5% and exports jumping 8.5%.
Ecostat projects retail sales will fall a slight 0.3% in October.
Ecostat puts the full-year central budget deficit at HUF 1,053.9 billion, as the result of expenditures of HUF 9,204.4 billion, up 1.6% from the previous year, and revenue of HUF 8,150.4 billion, down 2.1%.
The target for the general government deficit, excluding local councils, is HUF 870.3 billion, or 3.8% of GDP.
Ecostat expects the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to cut the base rate by 25bp to 5.00% at a meeting on Monday, but then leave the rate unchanged until October.
Most analysts expect MNB rate-setters to keep the base rate unchanged on Monday. (MTI - Econews)