Ecostat projects twelve-month consumer price inflation in Hungary will slow to 3.9% in November from 5.1% in May, the economic think tank said in its fresh Mikroszkóp report, which gives projections for four months in the future.
Ecostat sees producer prices rising 8% in November from the same month a year earlier.
It projects gross average wages will climb 3.6%, as public sector wages inch up 0.5% and private sector wages rise 4.9% in November from the same month a year earlier.
Industrial output is expected to increase 5.4%, with domestic sales rising 3.5% and exports jumping 8.9%.
Ecostat projects retail sales will fall 1% in November.
Ecostat puts the full-year central budget deficit at HUF 820.3 billion, as the result of expenditures of HUF 9,077.1 billion, up 0.2% from the previous year, and revenue of HUF 8,256.8 billion, down 0.8%.
The target for the general government deficit, excluding local councils, is HUF 870.3 billion, or 3.8% of GDP.
Ecostat expects the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) to cut the base rate by 25bp to 5.00% in September, but leave the rate unchanged until November. (MTI – Econews)