Ecostat expects Hungary's consumer price inflation to slow to 3.6% in September, the economic research company said on Monday in its fresh Mikroszkóp report, which offers projections for four months from now.
Ecostat expects twelve-month producer prices to rise 2.6% in September.
It sees gross wage growth reaching 3.2%, stagnating in the public sector but climbing 4.5% in the private sector.
Based on the projections, Ecostat said the National Bank of Hungary was likely to cut rates by 25bp to 5.00% at a meeting of the Monetary Council in May, but leave the base rate unchanged in the following four months.
Ecostat put industrial production up 4.4% in September from the same month a year earlier as domestic sales climb 2.8% and export sales rise 8.8%.
It projects retail sales will inch up 1.2%.
Ecostat put the HUF/EUR exchange rate at 270 in September.
Ecostat projects the central budget will close the year with a deficit of HUF 958.6 billion as expenditures inch up 0.2% to HUF 9,075.8 billion and revenue falls 2.5% to HUF 8,117.2 billion. (MTI – Econews)