The Acceleration Indicator (GYIA), a measure of ten different economic and financial indicators compiled by research institute Ecostat and business daily Világgazdaság, rose 0.25% in July, Ecostat told MTI on Thursday. The index rose for the second month in a row after stagnating in May, revised figures reveal.
Among the indicators the GYIA measures are non-food retail sales, real interest rates, the real value of the Budapest Stock Exchange's main BUX index, industrial output, stock of vehicle loans, the yield curve for government securities, money supply and real wages.
The indicator seems to support the expectation that the economy will grow at a faster rate in the second half of the year, however, risks remain. The biggest risk is that Western governments are expected to be compelled to take measures that will tighten demand, although this could gradually be priced into expectations, the analysis said.
This time, export growth was not the only positive factor. Five of the indicators rose in July, with as many falling. Improving indicators included the money supply indicator, the BUX index, a gap encouraging propensity to invest between short and long-term interest ratesk and a rise of industrial output and non-food retail sales.
The real interest rates indicator deteriorated the index in July, as did the narrowing of real wages. The stock of vehicle loans also continued shrinking, and the average time to find a job rose. (MTI-ECONEWS)