After the success of its latest bond issues Hungary does not need any more financing from the IMF, analysts of the London branch of Commerzbank said in a note on Friday.
Markets are now watching the cyclical performance of the Hungarian economy which is about to catch up with the rest of the region, they said.
By accomplishing this year's EUR 4 billion issuance plan by Wednesday, and the country not needing any further forex financing for a year, a key factor of vulnerability has been eliminated, namely the market fears concerning Hungary's self-financing capability, Commerzbank's analysts said. And the over-subscription of the latest bond issues showed that "there will be no need for the IMF in the foreseeable future", they added.
Commerzbank's analysts also see some thinning of Hungary's trade surplus in the second half of the year, and predict the forint at around 275 to the euro at year-end.
Hungary issued a combined USD 4.25 billion of ten- and 30-year dollar bonds in March and April, worth about EUR 3 billion, and an EUR 1 billion seven-year eurobond was on Wednesday, four times oversubscribed.
The forint was quoted 264.28 to the euro late Friday.