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Analysts see November CPI level with previous monthly figure

Analysts polled by business daily Napi Gazdaság estimate consumer prices rose at around the same rate in November as in October, when the consumer price index was 4.2% yr/yr.

The Central Statistical Office (KSH) will publish November CPI on Friday.

Higher food prices and, to a lesser extent, higher fuel prices may have underpinned an 0.2%-0.3% rise in consumer prices last month as compared to October, the analysts said.

In a year-on-year comparison, however, the base effect will help because food prices also rose in November of last year, analyst Gergely Suppan of Takarékbank said. Fuel prices also increased slightly, but that will not yet be substantially felt in the November figure. Both effects will become stronger by December, however, Suppan emphasized. On the one hand, the base of last December was low, which suggests that the yr/yr food-price increase will be bigger, and on the other hand, fuel prices are also reaching their historic high this month.

What will also be interesting with both the November and the December figures is whether the disinflation of consumer durables, which lasted for several months, but came to a halt in October, will continue and what the prices in the service sector will look like, Dániel Bebesy of Budapest Fund Management said. Both product groups are part of the core inflation indicator, a continued rise of which would be unfortunate from the point of view of monetary policy.

Furthermore, the rise in the prices of unprocessed foods this spring and summer is not necessarily over yet, Gergely Fórián Szabó of Pioneer Fund Management said. Depending on how fast the prices of basic products are built into the cost of processed foods, the effects could last for another six months, he said.

In January, however, inflation could slow by 0.5 percentage points, Suppan said, on the one hand, because last year's excise duty rise will partly be removed from the base and, on the other hand, because the usual rise in the fares of Budapest transport company BKV will not take place this January. (MTI – Econews)