Analysts polled by Reuters expect the central bank's Monetary Council to raise the base rate by 25bp to 6.00% at Monday's rate-setting meeting, predicting that the base rate will remain at this level at the end of this year, according to a Reuters survey.
Most of the 25 analysts polled said the MNB will raise the base rate by 25bp to 6.00% at next Monday's meeting. However, six of the analysts forecast that the bank would keep the base rate on hold at 5.75%.
The median forecast of the analysts sees Hungary's base rate at 6.00% by the end of 2011 as well as at the end of 2012 after the expected rate hike in January. The projections for the 2011-end base rate varied, however, widely, between 5.00% and 6.75%.
The analysts predicted average annual inflation of 3.9% for 2011, and the forecast for twelve-month December inflation was also 3.9%. They upped their forecast for annual average inflation by 0.1 percentage point and their year-end CPI forecast by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous poll held in December.
The analysts' median for this year's GDP growth is 2.8%, although the predictions vary widely, between 1.0% and 3.2%, and 3.4% GDP growth is predicted for 2012. The annual growth projections were upped sharply from 1.0% and 2.7%, respectively, in December.
The analysts' forecast for the ESA general government deficit is 2.9% of the GDP for 2011 as they did in December. Their projection matches the government's official deficit target of 2.94% of GDP for this year. The forecasts varied in a wide range, between a 3.2% deficit and a 6% surplus, the latter most probably assuming the spending of the bulk of large part of the assets transferred from private pension funds. (MTI – Econews)