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Analysts see inflation peaking at 4.6% in April

Analysts polled by business daily Napi Gazdasag estimate that inflation accelerated to 4.6% yr/yr in April from the higher-than-expected 4.5% rate in March.

Inflation continues to be driven fuel and food prices, the analysts said.

Fuel prices rose from March but may even drop in a twelve-month comparison, considering the monthly rise in April 2010. Food prices, including processed food could have risen at a sharp rate in April, but their rise could slow later, partly on the effect of the high base, some analysts said.

Gergely Suppan of Takarekbank and Gyorgy Barcza of K+H Bank agreed that inflation could start falling in the following months. Daniel Bebesy of Budapest Alapkezelo, however, expressed a more pessimistic view, predicting that inflation could peak at the end of 2011, at around 5%, falling to 3%-3.5% only by the end of 2012.

The more optimistic analysts forecast twelve-month inflation at around 4% in the summer, dropping to 3.5% by the end of 2011 and reach the 3% inflation target as early as next spring.

The Central Statistics Office (KSH) will publish April inflation figures on May 11, Wednesday.