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Analysts see August twelve-month CPI picking up to 4.1%

Analysts polled by business daily Napi Gazdaság estimate consumer prices rose 4.1% in August from the same month a year earlier, picking up from 4.0% yr/yr in July but drop in a monthly comparison, the paper reported. The Central Statistical Office (KSH) will publish August CPI on September 10, Friday.

In July, consumer prices rose 4.0% yr/yr and were up 0.1% from June. The monthly decline of consumer prices is not exceptional in August as food prices drop on seasonal factors although the flood and the rise of global wheat prices will temper the decline this year, Zsolt Kondrát of MKB Bank said.

Gergely Suppan of Takarékbank expects fuel prices to correct slightly downward, and sees similar moderate drops in clothing and services prices.

Analysts views varied whether a price drop of consumer durables, experienced since March, continued or halted. Suppan said the drop could have continued, citing a high base among reasons. Kondrát noted, however, that the continuous drop in the past few months was a surprise and the effect of the weaker forint would work through sooner or later.

Prospects of the next months is uncertain. It is difficult to foresee how much higher raw and seasonal food prices will affect processed food and meat products, the analysts said. The halt of the decline of consumer durable prices could also lift the CPI.

János Samu of Concorde put the December twelve-month CPI at 3.5% while Kondrát did not exclude a rise to as much as 4.7% by the end of the year. Next January will bring a drop, however, as this year's excise duty rise leaves the base.

Hungarian consumer prices increased 4.0% in the twelve months to July, slowing from 5.3% in June, data published by the Central Statistical Office (KSH) show. Food prices fell on the month for the first time this year, tempering the monthly rise despite higher energy, fuel and services prices.

In a month-on-month comparison, consumer prices rose 0.1%, also slowing from 0.2% in June. (MTI – Econews)