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Analysts put Nov CPI at 4.1%

Analysts polled by business daily Napi Gazdasag said the rise in consumer prices probably accelerated to 4.1% year-on-year in November, from 3.9% in the October, as excise taxes rises came into effect from the first of the month.

The forint is unlikely to firm past 300 to the euro, which could lift inflation as the price of imported goods rises, Janos Samu of Concorde told the paper. Reaching an agreement with the IMF and EU could bring the forint under 280 to the euro, but the conditions attached to such a deal could involve a reconsideration of a cap on household energy prices, resulting in inflationary pressure, he added.

An increase in Hungary’s main VAT rate from 25% to 27% from the start of next year could raise headline CPI to near 6%, said Takarekbank’s Andras Oszlay.

The analysts put average annual inflation at 3.9% for 2011 and 4.7% or 2012.