Hungary's economy could grow by about 1% this year, analysts told MTI, after the Central Statistical Office (KSH) revised Hungary's Q3 GDP growth to 1.7% from 1.6% in a second reading.
Takarékbank's Gergely Suppan said the upward revision came as no surprise in light of retail sales that showed a pick-up in consumption. Growth will be modest at the start because of the weak forint, but consumption should gradually grow as the labor market stabilizes, he added.
Suppan put calendar year-adjusted growth in Q4 at 2.6-2.7% and said full-year growth could reach 1.4%. If farmers had not had such a bad year, growth could have reached 1.8-1.9%, he added.
Next year, Hungary's economy could grow as much as 3%, Suppan said.
Dávid Németh of ING also said that if farmers had had an average year, full-year GDP growth would be 0.4-0.5 percentage point higher. He put full-year growth at 0.7-0.8%, or as high as 1% if domestic demand climbs.
Németh put GDP growth in 2011 at 2.7%. (MTI – Econews)