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Analysts forecast 11% unemployment for 2011

Analysts asked by MTI after the Central Statistics Office's announcement of unemployment figures on Wednesday expect and average 11% unemployment rate for 2011.

Hungary's average unemployment rate was 10.8% in the 15-74 age group in June-August 2011, unchanged now for the third three-month period and down from 11.0% in June-August 2010, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) said on Wednesday. The number of unemployed in June-August was 1.6% lower and the number of employed rose 0.8% from a year earlier. They were little changed from May-July.

Takarékbank senior analyst Gergely Suppan said the number of employees rose more slowly than expected, by 4,300 from May-June. The number of employees rose 32,000 yr/yr, likely due in great measure to the launch of public-work program, the analyst said. The number of unemployed fell by 400 from the previous three months, but fell 7,800 yr/yr.

The coming months could see employment figures rise due to seasonal effects as well as demand in the manufacturing industry, while unemployment could stagnate, Suppan said. The analyst expects an average 11% unemployment rate for 2011 and 10.6% for 2012.

Analyst of Buda-Cash Zoltán Réczey also expected 11% unemployment for 2011, but next year's figure highly depends on the government's further economic measures.

Average unemployment was 11.2% in 2010 after 11.0% in 2009.