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Analysts estimate month-on-month industrial output growth picked up in July

Hungary's industrial output rose 2%-4.5% in July from the previous month and is likely to continue to improve for the rest of the year, analysts told MTI.

The Central Statistical Office (KSH) will publish fresh industrial output data in the morning on Tuesday.

Senior analyst at K&H Bank György Barcza estimated industrial output fell 15% in July in a twelve-month comparison, but rose 2.0% in a month-on-month comparison. Confidence indicators are good, and export-led improvements are a Europe-wide phenomena by now, he said.

Erste Bank's Orsolya Nyeste put the twelve-month drop at 18.3% in July, but said the figure would rise in the last two months of the year because of a low base.

Gergely Suppan of Magyar Takarékszövetkezetek Bank estimated industrial output fell by 15% in a twelve-month comparison in July but grew 4.5% in a month-on-month comparison, accelerating from June. The twelve-month decline will slow to under 10% in September, then rise by 4%-5% in December as the start of the global financial and economic crisis enter the base period.

Hungary's industrial output declined 18.8% in the twelve months to June according to both calendar year-adjusted and unadjusted figures after a 22.1% drop in May, KSH figures show.

In a month-on-month comparison, industrial output rose 1.7%, according to workday- and seasonally-adjusted figures. The rise slowed from a 2.6% increase in May. (MTI – Econews)