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Acceleration Indicator up 0.15% in May - paper

The Acceleration Indicator (GYIA), a measure of ten different economic and financial indicators compiled by business daily Világgazdaság for a month-on-month comparison, rose 0.15% in May.

The measure reflects a further slowdown in the Hungarian economy in May. The paper on Thursday said the last smaller monthly increase was in April 2010; the slowdown began last December. In March, GYIA showed an increase of 0.21%.

Big exporter companies performed relatively well, but they are also impacted by the European slowdown of the past months, although there is no decline, just the earlier faster growth has lessened.

Seven of the indicators the GYIA measures improved, one was flat and only two declined. Almost all of the financial indicators were positive. Money supply is approaching its level before the crisis in real terms. Real interest rates fell as did the difference between long-term and short-term government securities yields; both pushed the indicator higher.

Germany's expectations, a key factor to Hungarian exports, remained unchanged, although still at a very high level.

Real wages rose month-on-month, which will sooner or later be reflected in demand. Industrial output grew as well, although domestic sales continued to decline, which dragged the GYIA down.

The other negative factor was the stock of consumer loans adjusted with inflation. It is positive, however, that the average time spent looking for a job has been falling for the third month in a row, at 18 months compared to its peak of 19 months in December.

The GYIA measures non-food retail sales, real interest rates, the real value of the Budapest Stock Exchange's main BUX index, industrial output, stock of vehicle loans, the yield curve for government securities, money supply and real wages.