London analysts on inflation outlook


The emerging market analysts of investment houses in London expect Hungary’s year-on-year inflation to stay over 8% in August, but they also predict a considerable decrease of annual inflation from September onward.

The London section of global financial services group JP Morgan expects 8.2% for August, and a probable lower than 6% figure in September. However, deflation will be stopped by unprocessed food products’ steep price hike in Q4. Banking group Citigroup’s analyst said that the house expects a 8.5% annual inflation for August, because the food price hikes had already left their mark. Dresdner Kleinwort expects an 8.1% whole-basket inflation and a core inflation of 5.1%, the lowest since last December.

BNP Paribas expects 8.3% for August, with core inflation having dropped from July’s 5.6% to 5.1%, no more than 7% for September and no more than 6% for the end of the year. Barclays Capital group has the lowest projection of 8.1%. The year-on-year inflation in September will be very favorable due to the strong base-effects, mainly due to the VAT increases in last September, said the group’s London analyst. (Gazdasági Rádió)


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