CIB Bank raises GDP forecast


CIB Bank analysts have raised their forecast for this year's GDP growth to 4.5% from 4.1% in March, chief analyst Mariann Trippon said last week, according to

Improved outlooks reflect a faster than anticipated reopening by mid-year, Trippon said. She said industry would make a "healthy contribution" to growth as supply chain tensions ease in the course of the year.

The service sector could see the biggest improvement this year, although the recovery of tourism and catering could take longer, she added. CIB's forecast is a little over the 4.3% growth the government projects for 2021.

Consumption is expected to increase to around 3%, under headline GDP growth, Trippon said, warning that extra savings made during the crisis would not "disappear entirely" and that disposable income could decline with the expiration of the repayment moratorium. Average annual inflation could be over 4%, she said, noting "strong upside risks."


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