Retail sales show 5.5% increase in June


In June 2017, the volume of sales in retail shops increased by 5.5% according to raw data and by 6.0% adjusted for calendar effects compared to the same month of the previous year, according to a first estimate of retail data for June published Thursday by the Central Statistical Office (KSH).

The volume of sales, adjusted for calendar effects, rose by 4.1% in specialized and non-specialized food shops, by 8.5% in non-food retail shops, and by 5.1% in automotive fuel retail.

In January–June 2017, the volume of sales – also according to calendar-adjusted data – was 3.9% higher than in the corresponding six-month period of the previous year.

Analysts interviewed by state news agency MTI said growing real wages and strong consumer confidence should maintain retail sales growth in the coming months.

Péter Virovácz of ING Bank noted that the calendar-adjusted growth showed further acceleration compared to the previous month and the data seem to have started to reflect dynamic wage growth and rising consumer confidence. The strong data clearly carry an upside risk as regards the 3.5% GDP growth projected for the second quarter, he added.

Gergely Suppan of Takarékbank predicted 4.5%-5% turnover growth in the sector for the full year of 2017.

Dávid Németh of K&H Bank noted that non-food sales, which include consumer durables, continue to show the highest increase among the main retail sales segments. He added that the recent strengthening of the forint could also play a part in retail sales growth in the future.

Gergely Ürmössy of Erste Bank said retail sales growth until the end of 2017 could persist at the level seen in the first half of the year or even slightly accelerate.

A second estimate of June retail data will follow on August 23.


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