Hungary CPI slows to 6.0% in October

A 2% drop in fuel prices in the month of October and base effects explain the slowdown of the twelve-month CPI, KSH department head Borbála Minary said. Consumer prices rose 0.1% month-on-month in October after rising 0.4% in September.
The estimates of emerging market analysts in London for the October year-on-year headline figure moved between 6.1% and 6.3%. The consensus figure of Hungarian analysts polled by the daily Napi Gazdaság was 6.2%.
January-October prices were up 5.8% from a year earlier. Annual average inflation slowed to 3.9% in 2011 from 4.9% in 2010. Twelve-month CPI reached a more than four-year peak in September. October twelve-month inflation was boosted by excise duty rises that pushed up spirits and tobacco prices, as well as by vehicle fuel and food. The tax-adjusted index calculated by KSH shows that, excluding tax and duty changes, consumer prices rose 0.1% a month after 0.3% in September and were up 3.5% yr/yr after a 4.1% yr/yr increase in the previous month. Seasonally-adjusted core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, was up 0.1% a month after no change in September, and twelve-month core inflation slowed to 5.1%, its level in July and August, after picking up to 5.3% in September. The harmonised consumer price index (HICP) used for EU comparisons was 0.2% a month and 6.0% yr/yr, both down from 0.4% a month and 6.4% yr/yr in September.
Calculating with a consumer basket used for pensioners, prices rose 0.4% a month in October after 0.3% in September, and were 6.2% higher than a year earlier after rising 6.6% yr/yr in September. In a breakdown by product groups, alcohol and tobacco prices rose 0.5% a month and their twelve month rise, at 15.4%, was little changed, still boosted by excise duty rises. Vehicle fuel prices dropped 2.0% a month after rising 2.8% in September, and their twelve-month rise slowed to 10.4% from 15.7%. Prices of "other goods" fell as a result by 0.6% a month and were up a moderate 6.4% yr/yr. Food prices were up 0.6% a month as they were in September, despite a 0.9% drop in seasonal foodstuff prices. They continued to rise steeply, by 7.6% yr/yr as seasonal food prices rose by almost one-fifth, egg prices by a third and pork prices by more than 15%. Household energy prices rose 1.0% after a 0.5% in the previous month but rose a below-average 5.0% yr/yr. Bottled gas prices were up 11.6% and piped gas was 4.2% more expensive than in October 2011.
Services prices fell 0.5% in the second monthly fall in a row, and were up a below-average 4.2% on the year as waste collection fees were up 8.0% yr/yr, sewage fees rose 5.2% and water fees 5.0%. Prices for consumer durables rose 0.1%, in the first monthly rise since February. The forint strengthened in October, but the prices could have reflected its marked weakening in September. The prices dropped 1.2% year-on-year. Clothing and footwear prices jumped 3.0% in a month earlier on seasonal effects, but were still only 1.7% higher than a year earlier.