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Paper: Acceleration indicator points to economic recovery

Analysis

The Acceleration Indicator (GyIa), a measure of economic and financial indicators compiled by business daily Világgazdaság, rose 0.93% in September from the same month in 2012, the largest such increase since 2011, the paper reported yesterday.

The indicator increased 0.34% month-on-month from August for the largest two-month increase since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008

Világgazdaság noted that three of the five main financial indicators used in formulation of the September GyIa -- interest ratest, money supply and the Budapest Stock Exchange's BUX index -- showed positive growth and were drivers of the overall increase.

Based on the results, Világgazdaság concluded that "first half-year GDP data and GyIa seems to indicate gradual recovery from the economic recession," but tempered the notion by reminding that a poor fourth quarter could scuttle an overall decrease in GyIa for 2013.

The 'paper went on to note that further impetus for the Hungarian economy may be provided via the massive HUF 2 trillion influx into the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) "Funding for Growth" scheme, although the effects of these funds may not be fully observed until 2014.

The GyIa measures non-food retail sales, real interest rates, the real value of the Budapest Stock Exchange’s main BUX index, industrial output, stock of vehicle loans, the yield curve for government securities, money supply and real wages.

– Material from Gergő Rácz was used in this story

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