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Kopint-Tárki raises 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8%

Analysis

Economic research institute Kopint-Tárki has raised its forecast for 2021 GDP growth to 6.8% from 5-5.5% in a projection released in the summer, chief executive Éva Palócz said, according to a report by state news wire MTI.

Finance Minister Mihály Varga said late in September that this year's GDP growth could reach 7-7.5%.

Palócz said all components of 2021 growth are surrounded by "major risks". 

Kopint-Tárki puts average annual inflation at 4.8% this year. If raw material prices continue to rise for the rest of the year, that could reach 5% Palócz said.

Although month-on-month industrial output has been unfavorable recently, full-year growth could reach 11í%, she said. The construction sector could also expand by more than 10% this year, she added.

Investments are set to rise 7.4%, Kopint-Tárki projects.

Wage growth could slow further for the rest of the year, but the full-year increase could still exceed 8%.

Kopint-Tárki sees the trade surplus widening to around EUR 6.5 bln this year from EUR 5.6 bln in 2020.

For 2022, Kopint-Tárki forecasts GDP growth of around 5%.

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