Kopint-Tárki cuts GDP growth forecasts for 2011-2012

Analysis

Economic research company Kopint-Tárki on Wednesday said it lowered its GDP growth projections for Hungary to 1.5% in 2011 and 0.5% in 2012.

In its previous forecast, published in June, Kopint-Tárki put GDP growth at 3% for both 2011 and 2012.

The range for the projection for 2012 is 0-1%, but a worse scenario cannot be ruled out, said institute director Éva Palócz.

Kopint-Tárki raised its projection for annual average inflation in 2012 from 3.6% to 4.6%. It sees consumer prices climbing 4.0% in 2011.

Private consumption is expected to decline by 1% in 2012, while investments remain flat. Exports are set to rise 6% while imports climb 5%.

Kopint-Tárki did not give a projection for the general government deficit in 2010 because of uncertainty surrounding the details of tax changes.

Palócz said the "pushing back and forth" of fiscal items that add up to several hundred billion forints in the 2012 budget bill made any calculations difficult.

"If I had to give a projection, I think the accrual-based deficit would be 3-4% of GDP," she said when asked by MTI.

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