IMF upgrades Hungaryʼs GDP growth outlook

Analysis

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its projection for Hungaryʼs GDP growth this year by 0.3 percentage points in its latest World Economic Outlook report. Next yearʼs GDP is also expected to grow further, it adds.

Back in April, the IMF forecast GDP growth of 2.9% in Hungary, which was revised upward to 3.2% in the World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday. As for 2018, the IMF raised its forecast for GDP growth from 3.0% to 3.4%.

This compares to Hungarian government projections for economic growth of 4.1% in 2017 and 4.3% in 2018.

The IMF now projects consumer prices in Hungary will rise 2.5% in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018. It sees the unemployment rate falling to 4.4% this year, and 4.3% next year. The current account surplus is set to narrow to 4.8% of GDP in 2017, and 4.2% in 2018, it adds.

According to the current estimates of the IMF, the global economy will expand by 3.6% in 2017, which is a slightly higher growth than in June. Last year, global GDP grew by 3.2% and the IMF forecast for 2018 is now 3.7%.

As for specific zones, the IMF forecasts GDP growth of 2.2% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018 in the U.S.; 2.1% this year and 1.9% next year in the eurozone; 1.7% and 1.5% in the U.K. in 2017 and 2018, respectively; 1.8% and 1.6% in Russia; and 6.8% and 6.5% in China.

"Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia more than offset downward revisions for the United States and the United Kingdom," commented the IMF report. "But the recovery is not complete: while the baseline outlook is strengthening, growth remains weak in many countries, and inflation is below target in most advanced economies. Commodity exporters, especially of fuel, are particularly hard hit as their adjustment to a sharp stepdown in foreign earnings continues," the IMF added. 

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