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Hungary acceleration indicator drops further in November

Analysis

The Acceleration Indicator (GYIA), a measure of ten different economic and financial indicators compiled by business daily Világgazdaság, fell 0.13% in November from a month earlier after dropping 0.41% in the previous month, the paper said on Thursday.

The indicator, which is designed to forecast changes in GDP, declined for the sixth consecutive month, the paper said.

Five of the measure’s ten components rose in November, while four declined, however, these four represent a bigger weight in the indicator than the rest.

Falling real interest rates, increasing money supply, and the narrowing of the difference between long-term and short-term government securities yields improved the indicator, as did the change of the BUX as well as the fact that the average time spent looking for a job decreased substantially. On the other hand, the deterioration in Germany’s business sentiment, and the most important component, industrial output growth and domestic industrial sales spoiled the overall picture. The stock of consumer loans adjusted with inflation also narrowed, while real wages were stable, the paper said.

The GYIA measures non-food retail sales, real interest rates, the real value of the Budapest Stock Exchange’s main BUX index, industrial output, stock of vehicle loans, the yield curve for government securities, money supply and real wages.

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