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Fresh trade data no surprise; analysts put year-end surplus as high as €6.6 bln

Analysis

Fresh data showing a slowdown in import and export growth in June were no surprise to analysts who put Hungary's full-year trade surplus at €6.5 billion-6.6 billion, up from €5.5bn in 2010.

Hungary's year-on-year euro-term export growth slowed to 3.1% in June from 20.5% in May, the central statistics office KSH said early Friday. Import growth decelerated to 3.8% from 15.6% in the same period.

KSH attributed part of the decline to a high base for trade of communications, recording and playback equipment as sales of televisions spiked in June of 2010 because of the World Cup.

Dávid Németh of ING Bank said that if KSH is right, export growth could return to around 10% in the segment in the coming months. He put both export and import growth at 5-10% for the rest of the year, projecting a year-end surplus of €6.5bn.

Gergely Suppán of TakarekBank put the annual trade surplus at €6.6bn.

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