Forint down from 15-month peak against euro

Analysis

The forint was trading at 298.46 to the euro late Thursday on the interbank forex market, down from 296.58 late Wednesday. Also at 296.58 to the euro early Thursday, the forint moved between 296.41 and 298.88 after a 15-month high at 295.82 Wednesday intraday.

The US Fed published the minutes of its March meeting late Wednesday, and it dented market hopes for a rate-hike postponement which have resurfaced since the end of last week in the week in view of dismal US data.

With dollar pressure weighing again on the euro, the Hungarian currency also stepped back a little, while European Central Bank (ECB) accounts from March, the first month of its QE, supported, showing asset purchases a bit above target after a slow start.

The forintʼs high on Wednesday also proved to be a strong resistance point while investors as yet apparently do not want to test the tolerance of the National Bank of Hungaryʼs (MNB) for a too strong forint. Present expectations point to further, but only small and predictable policy rate cuts on the coming months.

The forint traded at 279.50 to the dollar, down from 275.13 late Wednesday. On Thursday, it moved between 274.98 and 279.95, an eight-day low, after a more than one-month high at 270.07 Monday intraday.

It was quoted at 286.47 to the Swiss franc, down from 284.64 late Wednesday. Its range on Thursday was 284.28 to 286.85 after a two-week high at 283.45 Wednesday intraday. Since its crash to an all-time low at 378.49 on January 15 when the Swiss central bank scrapped its cap of 1.20 to the euro, it reached the highest at 281.07 on February 26.

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