Equilor analysts forecast 4.5% GDP growth for 2022

Analysis

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Analysts of Equilor Investment expect Hungary's GDP growth to reach 4.5% in 2022, senior analyst Zoltán Varga said on Wednesday, according to a report by state news wire MTI.

GDP growth in 2023 could slow down to 3.8%, he added.

Economic growth will be driven by domestic consumption in the first half of this year, and later on, with the recovery of supply chains, external demand could also have a positive impact on the data, Varga said.

Equilor's analysts expect inflation to come close to 5% at the end of this year, with the central bank's base rate raised to 4.9% by then, and the cycle of tightening could end with another 30-basis-point increase next year, he said.

The government's GDP growth projection for this year is 5.9%.

Average annual inflation could decelerate to 4.8% in 2022 and 3.8% in 2023, Varga said.

He said the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) could continue raising the one-week deposit rate by 30 basis points after this week's 50-basis-point base rate hike, and the one-week deposit rate could converge with the base rate by mid-2022.

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