CIB puts 2022 GDP growth at 4-5%

Analysis

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Hungary's economy could expand by 4-5% this year, CIB Bank chief analyst Mariann Trippon said at a press conference on Wednesday, according to a report by state news wire MTI.

Trippon said the outlook is characterized by "greater than usual uncertainty" against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and state-of-emergency measures the government is introducing. Domestic consumption will be the "main engine" of growth, she added.

She said better-than-expected first-quarter GDP would provide momentum for full-year growth supported by the tight labor market, strong wage dynamics, and high household savings.

Hungary's government puts this year's GDP growth at 4.3%.

Trippon noted that the market consensus suggests inflation will peak over 11% in the autumn, then remain around 10% until December.

The National Bank of Hungary's base rate is expected to top out at 7.5-8.5%, she added.

She put the HUF/EUR exchange rate at 370-390.

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