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Analysts: November CPI likely flat, set to nosedive on utilities

Analysis

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Hungary's headline consumer inflation is likely to have remained flat last month, or wobbled a few tenths either side of the 0.9% year-on-year October print, but is set to nosedive later on the back of a fresh round of utility price cuts, London-based emerging markets analysts said ahead of Wednesday's data release.

Forecasts varied in a very wide range as analysts diverge in their views as to how much of the November utility price cuts may have already passed through to retail tariffs, however. Economists at BNP Paribas said they expect Hungarian CPI inflation to have decelerated significantly all the way down to 0.0% in November, in the wake of an 11.1% cut in utility prices for households.

In contrast, analysts at London-based financial consultancy 4cast expect about 80% of the utility price effects to appear only in the December CPI release due to methodological reasons.

“The main factor that causes this one-month transmission delay is that the bills for the November consumption are issued and paid in December only.”

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