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November retail sales up 5.3% year-on-year

The volume of retail sales grew by 5.3% in November 2018 according to raw data, and by 5.2% when adjusted for calendar effects, compared to November 2017, according to a flash estimate of monthly data published today by the Central Statistical Office (KSH).

Unadjusted sales growth decelerated from 6.4% in October.

The volume of retail sales grew a calendar-adjusted 1.7% in specialized and non-specialized food shops, by 9.1% in non-food retail, and by 5.6% in automotive fuel retail.

In the period January-November 2018, the calendar-adjusted volume of sales was 6.3% higher than in the corresponding period of 2017. Retail sales grew by 3.8% in specialized and non-specialized food shops, by 9.4% in non-food retail, and by 6.5% in automotive fuel retail in the first eleven months of the year.

In response to the latest data, state news wire MTI cited analyst Gergely Suppan of TakarékBank as saying that retail sales could continue to grow dynamically in the coming months. Retail sales growth in 2018 could turn out at around 6.3%, he estimated, although adding that growth could slow to 4.5% in 2019.

ING Bankʼs chief analyst Péter Virovácz noted that monthly data show retail sales have been edging down since the end of 2017. The latest monthly data also show the effects of high base numbers and a moderation in household consumption, he added.

A second, more detailed estimate of retail trade figures for November 2018 will be published on January 24.