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GKI forecasts 5.7% economic contraction in 2020

Economic research institute GKI projects Hungaryʼs economy will contract 5.7% this year, if there is no second wave of coronavirus infections, state news wire MTI reports, citing a forecast issued today.

In GKIʼs previous forecast, released in March, shortly after a state of emergency was declared to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus, the institute had projected declines in GDP of 3% and 7%, based on different scenarios.

In the latest forecast, GKI projects a 10% drop in industrial output and a 4% decline in domestic consumption.

It projects exports, of both goods and services, will fall by 15%, while imports drop 13%.

The forecast sees the jobless rate reaching 6%.

GKI projects the general government deficit, relative to GDP, will swell to 5% in 2020.

The institute says that Hungaryʼs economy may return to 2019 levels perhaps only in 2022.