Pénzügykutató raises GDP growth forecast to 4.7%

MNB

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Economic research firm Pénzügykutató has raised its projection for Hungaryʼs GDP growth this year to 4.7% in a forecast released on Wednesday. The projection was raised from 3.7% in its last forecast published in March.   

Research consultant Éva Várhegyi was cited by state news agency MTI as saying that economic growth could slow to 3.8% in 2020 as investments and consumption are expected to grow at a slower pace than this year.

Negative global economic effects will be counterbalanced by development funding from the European Union and measures by the government and the central bank to boost growth, she added.  

Pénzügykutató sees inflation reaching 3.4% in 2019, then falling to 3.2% in 2020. Unemployment could edge down a little and be around 3%, it added, while real earnings could grow by 7% this year and by 6% next year.

The general government deficit may amount to 1.7% of GDP this year, falling to 0.9% of GDP in 2020, according to ESA methodology.

The government debt-to-GDP ratio should fall to 67.8% by the end of the year, and drop further to 64.5% by the end of 2020, said the research firm.

The official government forecasts for GDP growth are 4.0% for 2019, 4.0% for 2020, and 4.1% in 2021, based on the April update of the governmentʼs Convergence Program, noted MTI.

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