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Morgan Stanley recommends buying long-term Hungarian USD bonds

MNB

Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the 25-year long Hungarian U.S dollar bond has upside potential at moderate risk, as Hungary is more resilient to a raise in U.S. treasury yields, Barron’s wrote in an article on Monday. Improving fundamentals and a 5% total return are also key factors, the analysts said.

There are risks involved, however, according to Morgan Stanley: “Hungary’s government debt [and] fiscal deficit… potential new unorthodox policy is also a risk. Externally… a sharp sell-off in the U.S. Treasury 30-year bond would still impact the trade negatively. Assuming that both European Central Bank sovereign Quantitative Easing is implemented and… succeeds in pushing inflation up, both not clear cut … it could put pressure on the long-end of Bund and in turn U.S. Treasury curves”. Barron’s also noted that Hungary’s largest bank, OTP is among the most exposed financial institution to Russian debt.  

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