MNB expects inflation to peak in the fall
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The National Bank of Hungary (MNB) said it expects inflation to peak in the fall months and then start to slowly decrease as energy, raw materials and food prices continue to put pressure on global and domestic inflation from the cost side, the MNB said in its quarterly Inflation Report released on its website.
Inflation is peaking higher and in a more sustained manner globally than earlier expected, MNB executive director Gergely Baksay said at the press conference presenting the report.
The time profile of inflation will be significantly influenced by the future phase-out of the government's price cap measures, he said.
These government measures will moderate inflation by 4.3 percentage points in 2022 and 0.7 points in 2023, he said.
The analysts made the technical assumption that the price caps on certain food staples and vehicle fuels will be phased out gradually from Oct. 1, 2022, until June 30, 2023, as they have no information on the measures after October he added.
The MNB expects inflation to return to the central bank's tolerance band at the end of 2023 then reach the 3% target in the first half of 2024.
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