Kopint-Tárki ups 2017 GDP growth forecast to 3.2%

MNB

Economic researcher Kopint-Tárki has revised its projection for next yearʼs GDP growth from 2.7% to 3.2% in a quarterly forecast released on Thursday, as reported by Hungarian news agency MTI.

The projection is slightly over the governmentʼs official forecast of 3.1% growth in 2017. At the same time, Kopint-Tárki projects 2.2% economic growth for this year, well under the 2.5% government projection.

Kopint-Tárki projects annual average inflation of 0.4% this year and 2.0% in 2017.

CEO Éva Palócz said next yearʼs growth will be driven by household consumption, which is set to climb up to 5% on the back of wage rises, accelerating from 4.5% this year. Real wage growth could accelerate to 7.8% next year from 7.3% in 2016 in the wake of wage agreements reached between the government, employers and unions, she added.

Kopint-Tárki expects exports to grow by 6.2% this year and by 6.7% in 2017, while imports expand by 6.9% and 7.7%, respectively.  

The current account surplus is seen reaching 8.4% of GDP this year and 8.6% in 2017, which translates to figures of EUR 9.5 billion and EUR 10.2 bln, respectively, according to the MTI report.

Kopint-Tárki puts this yearʼs general government deficit at 1-1.5% of GDP, under the 2% target.

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