JP Morgan upgrades Hungary growth forecast
JP Morgan said on Friday it had significantly upgraded its forecast for Hungary’s GDP growth on the back of a robust auto sector and the simultaneous fiscal and monetary easing.
London-based emerging markets economists of the global financial services group said in a research note released to clients in London that their updated tracking exercise points to a 3rd-quarter GDP growth of 2.7% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized rate basis — “considerably stronger than our initial forecast of 1.5%.”
“Our full-year 2013 GDP growth forecast now stands at 0.6% from 0.5% previously while our 2014 GDP forecast has moved up to 2% from 1.8%.”
Aside from the auto sector’s robust performance, domestic policy stimulus is being delivered through multiple channels. After significant tightening last year, “we estimate a fiscal impulse of 1% of GDP in 2013 and a further 0.5% in 2014.”
On the monetary policy front, credit conditions have eased significantly both through policy rate cuts and the MNB’s Funding for Growth Scheme: “We estimate [the scheme] will add 1% to GDP growth by the end of next year,” the analysts said.
SUPPORT THE BUDAPEST BUSINESS JOURNAL
Newspaper organizations across the globe have struggled to find a business model that allows them to continue to excel, without compromising their ability to perform. Most recently, some have experimented with the idea of involving their most important stakeholders, their readers.
We would like to offer that same opportunity to our readers. We would like to invite you to help us deliver the quality business journalism you require. Hit our Support the BBJ button and you can choose the how much and how often you send us your contributions.