Births and deaths down, marriages up

Natural decrease grew by 2.7% or 897 people compared to January–October 2018. 

In October 2019 some 7,780 children were born, 2.5% less, than in the same month of 2018. Some 10,435 people lost their lives, 4.4% less than in the corresponding month of the previous year.

The decline in the number of births was lower than that of deaths, meaning that the natural decrease over the month was 2,655 people as opposed to 2,935 in October 2018, which meant a decrease of 9.5%, KSH says. The number of marriages went up considerably; as 5,609 couples got married, 65% more than in October 2018. 

In the first 10 months of 2019, some 74,064 children were born, which was 1,242 children or 1.6% lower year-on-year. The number of newborns was lower in January-March, June and October, and higher in April-May and July-September compared to the same period of the previous year. The most significant increase of 2.7% was registered in April and the largest decline of 5.8% in June.

The estimated total fertility rate was 1.48 per woman, compared with 1.49 for the first 10 months of 2018.

There were 108,123 deaths during January-October 2019, 345 less than in the same period of the previous year. The number of deaths increased in January, February, and June. In all other months of the year, fewer people died than in the same month of the previous year.

The largest increase of 20% was registered in the first month of the year. This may have been due to a flu epidemic that peaked earlier than last year, according to KSH. In the rest of the year, fewer deaths were recorded. The most significant of these was the decline of 14% in March.

Owing to a greater decrease in the number of live births than deaths, the natural decrease was 34,059 people as opposed to 33,162 people in the first 10 months of 2018, which meant a growth of 2.7%.

In the first 10 months, a total of 57,774 couples got married, 24% or 11,023 couples more compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. January was the only month of the year when fewer matrimonies were registered than a year earlier.

Following this, the number of marriages increased slightly in February-March, on average by 8.5% in April-May, and significantly, by 16% in June, compared to the previous year. This upward trend continued and in July-September there was an impressive 33% increase on average and in October 65% more couples got married than in the same months of 2018. The number of marriages in January-October 2019 has been the highest since 1990.

There were 9.1 live births and 13.3 deaths per 1,000 population. The former was 0.1 per mille point lower and the latter did not change compared to the corresponding period of the previous year; as a result of these factors, the rate of natural decrease rose by 0.1 per mille point to 4.2 per mille. The number of infant deaths was 3.7 per thousand live births in the first 10 months of 2019, showing an increase of 0.2 per mille point compared to the same period of the previous year. The marriage rate of 7.1 per mille was 1.4 per mille point higher than a year earlier, KSH says.