Forint rebounds on interbank market

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The forint was trading at 299.98 to the euro late Monday on the interbank forex market, up from 303.44 late Friday and 303.34 late Sunday. At 303.33 to the euro early Monday, the forint moved between 299.51 and 303.96 in the morning, a third one-month low in three days. Over last week, it fell 0.75% versus the euro after sinking 1.31% over the previous week.

While fear for an early Fed tightening recedes, and euro zone worries eased after a reshuffle of Greeceʼs negotiating team, and the dollarʼs upward adjustment from Fridayʼs 2 1/2-week low fizzled out by late afternoon, the Hungarian currency could regain its week-end losses in improved, risk-ready market mood.

The upside is, however, capped by waiting for more signs that Greece is ready to co-operate with the EU, the ECB and the IMF, analysts say.

The ECBʼs QE and local economic growth expectations have underpinned the forint lately, but risk signals, such as Fridayʼs data on slowing annual retail trade growth as well as a poll on Monday showing the vast majority of consumers are still pessimistic, and the National Bank of Hungaryʼs (MNB) continuing easing bias glue the currency to the vicinity of 300 to the euro.

The forint traded at 275.34 to the dollar, up from 279.05 late Friday and 279.17 late Sunday. On Monday, it moved between 275.08, a near three-week high, and 280.33.

It was quoted at 289.79 to the Swiss franc, up from 292.99 late Friday and 292.75 late Sunday. Its range on Monday was 288.63, a four-day high, to 292.84 after a five-day low at 293.74 Friday intraday. Since its crash to an all-time low at 378.49 on January 15 when the Swiss central bank scrapped its cap of 1.20 to the euro, it reached the highest at 281.07 on February 26.

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