Business confidence up, consumer confidence down in October

Logistics

Economic research institute GKI’s Economic Sentiment Index, its combined gauge of consumer and business confidence, reached an almost three-year low in October. The empirical survey shows that while business expectations rose slightly, consumer expectations deteriorated sharply after two months of improvement.

The overall Economic Sentiment Index edged down to -0.7 in October, from -0.3 in the previous month, on a sharp deterioration in consumer confidence, GKI noted in a press release.

GKIʼs measure of confidence in the business sector, one of the two main components of the Economic Sentiment Index, rose to 2.5 in October, up from 0.9 in September, though still significantly lower than earlier in the year.

Confidence in the industrial sector returned into positive territory after falling sharply in the previous month. Assessments of output in the previous period improved, as did the production outlook, as well as assessments of order stocks - although not export orders - and inventories.

Sentiment in the construction sector deteriorated as companies in both the building segment and civil engineering became more pessimistic. Assessments of output in the previous three months were little changed, but evaluations of order stocks worsened.

Confidence in the commerce sector improved after falling for four consecutive months. Assessments of sales positions and inventory levels improved slightly, as did the outlook for orders.

The outlook in the services sector was little changed in October.

GKIʼs consumer confidence index, the other main component of the Economic Sentiment Index, fell sharply to -9.8 in October, from -3.7 in the previous month. Households were more pessimistic about their financial positions, their ability to make big-ticket purchases, and particularly about their ability to make savings.

The survey is conducted with the support of the EU. The October press release can be read here.

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