Magyar Bankholding Analyst Expects Temporary Rise in Unemployment

HR

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András Horváth, senior analyst at Magyar Bankholding, expects unemployment to rise to around 4.5% in the first half of the year, and then fall back to around the previous level of 3.5% by the end of the year, writes hrportal.hu.

Horváth believes that the Hungarian labor market continues to produce stable numbers, that the negative internal and external factors have not yet had a significant impact on the historical employment level of 4.7 million people, and that activity is also reaching new heights, as apparently the inactive are also increasingly return to the labor market in the inflationary environment.

According to the analyst, the war in Ukraine, the European energy crisis, the real economic effects of the spectacular interest rate hikes, and the signs of a global recession have so far not materialized in the labor market processes, which is good news from the point of view of the resilience of the domestic market.

Horváth added that the most acute current issue is the management of the price-wage spiral.

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