GKI raises economic growth forecast to 3.8%

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Economic research institute GKI has raised its GDP growth projection to 3.8% for 2017, a quarterly forecast released on Friday shows, as reported by state news wire MTI.

GKIʼs previous GDP growth forecast was 3.5% for 2017, MTI reported.

GDP growth came to 3.2% in the second quarter, after 4.2% in the first. GKI noted that, excluding seasonal and calendar effects, the slowdown was more moderate, from 3.8% to 3.6%, and that investments continued to rise sharply from last yearʼs low base.

GKI projects full-year industrial output growth of 5.5% and expects annual unemployment to fall to 4.3% this year.

GKI notes that, while real wages were up by 9% in the first half of 2017, retail sales grew by less than 4%. This suggests that the minimum wage increase has led to a fall in grey incomes while households must also have reduced their debts, GKI added.

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