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Analysts: Hungary GDP up over 2% for Q4 2013

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Hungary’s annual economic growth is likely to have accelerated to well above 2% in the last quarter of 2013, although it may have slowed in quarter-on-quarter terms on apparently softening industrial output toward the end of last year, London-based emerging-market analysts said ahead of the release of preliminary GDP data on Friday.

Economists at global financial consultancy Capital Economics said on Monday that their GDP tracker model points towards growth of around 2.5% year-on-year in the final quarter of last year, up from 1.8% in the third quarter. Capital analysts reckon that the Hungarian economy has benefitted both from a recovery in the export-led industrial sector as well as strengthening domestic demand. 

“The seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth figures are volatile […] But for what it’s worth, GDP growth of 2.5% year-on-year would be consistent with output rising by 0.4% over the quarter – a slowdown from the 0.9% recorded in the third quarter.”

More timely indicators such as Hungary’s economic sentiment indicator, published by the European Commission, suggest that the economy started this year on a strong note as well.

“Nonetheless, we remain concerned about how sustainable the recovery is and, as pre-election stimulus unwinds later this year, growth could start to slow again,” Capital Economics analysts said.

London-based emerging markets economists at JP Morgan, a global financial services group, said that seasonally adjusted GDP growth momentum “likely eased significantly” in the last quarter of 2013 to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter from the 0.9% print in the third quarter. However, growth probably continued to accelerate year-on-year to 2.3% from 1.8% on base effects, they added.

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