Industrial output growth set to slow because of downturn in W Europe - analysts


Hungary's industrial output growth is set to slow to 6.0-6.5% for the full year of 2011 as demand drops on the country's biggest export markets, analysts told MTI on Thursday, after the Central Statistics Office (KSH) published fresh data.

Hungary's industrial output climbed 7.0% in January-July from the same period a year earlier, KSH said in a second reading of data early Thursday. Output climbed 2.8% year-on-year in July after slipping 0.6% in June.

CIB Bank chief analyst György Barta said the data show a return to growth in July, but the downturn in Western Europe, home to Hungary's biggest trading partners, mean the end of double-digit growth. The purchasing managers index for Germany shows a decline in the manufacturing sector of Hungary's biggest export market, which does not bode well for future industrial growth, he added.

Barta put full-year industrial output at 6%.

Takarékbank’s Gergely Suppan said year-on-year industrial output growth was likely to slow to 2-4% in the coming months, but would jump in December because of the base effect. He put full-year growth at just 6.5% because of the slowdown in the eurozone.

Hungary's industrial output rose 10.5% in 2010.


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