Gloomy outlooks for Hungary

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In its latest survey on financial markets in the Central and Eastern European region, Erste Group and ZEW reveal that financial experts still worry about Hungary’s economic outlook.

Outlook of the Hungarian economy was not perceived better in July than a month ago by financial experts, the latest Financial Market Report CEE jointly conducted by Germany’s Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) and Erste Group shows.

Only 5.5% of the questioned financial market experts said the current state of the Hungarian economy was good, and 38.9% thought it bad. Such results put Hungary to the top of the list of the worst economies in the region, the study claims.

Investors’ sentiment about the outlook on performance of the Hungarian Stock Exchange deteriorated again in July.

While more than 61% of financial market experts queried in the survey said in June that they expected an increase in the index of the Budapest Stock Exchange in six month time, only 46.9% of them said the same in July. In the meantime, the proportion of those expecting lower BUX index went up to 25.6% in July, from 19.4% in June. Thus the bull/bear quotient – which shows how the number of those think the BUX will go up relates to the group believes it will decrease – fell to 1.8 from its earlier 3.15 rate.

According to daily Napi Gazdaság, which reports on the survey, the quotient has not been this low since January. Back then, anticipation preceding the announcement of the Széll Kálmán Plan and the renationalization of private pension funds worried investors, the daily wrote.

An increasing number of surveyed financial experts think that the Hungarian currency will gain momentum versus the euro during the course of the next six months. More than 36% of respondents anticipate a stronger forint – representing a 8.1% increase from last month. Meanwhile, the percentage of those awaiting a weaker forint course also grew on a monthly basis, to 25% from 19.4%. Only 38.9% of financial experts - down from 52.8% in June – think that there will be no change in the exchange rate of the forint.

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