GKI raises latest 2018 growth forecast to 4.5%


Economic research institute GKI has raised its projection for this yearʼs GDP growth to 4.5%, up from 4.2% in an earlier forecast.    Hungaryʼs GDP was up 4.7% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2018, according to preliminary data released by the Central Statistical Office (KSH) in November.   

GKI noted that fourth-quarter GDP is likely to slow to around 4%, down from 4.8% in Q3.

GKI left its projection for next yearʼs economic growth unchanged at 3.2%, citing a reduction in European Union transfers, uncertainty surrounding the direction of the global economy, a continued deterioration of the external and internal balances, rising inflation, and little change to the countryʼs competitiveness.

Following the release of third-quarter growth data in November, Minister of Finance Mihály Varga noted that the adjusted Q3 growth rate was two-and-a-half times the European Union average and the second highest among all Member States.

Varga recalled that the European Commission recently raised its projection for Hungarian growth to 4.3%, so that by now both domestic and international organizations are almost unanimous in predicting growth of over 4% in 2018, in line with the Hungarian governmentʼs own expectation.

The KSH will release a second, more detailed estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter of 2018 and the year to date this Wednesday, December 5.


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