Analysts surprised at upward revision of Q3 GDP growth

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Analysts polled by MTI-Econews expressed surprise over both the fact and especially the size of the 0.3 percentage-point upward revision of the Q3 GDP growth figure by the Central Statistical Office (KSH), and still do not expect full-year growth to reach 4%.

As reported today, both the unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted, reconciled figures were revised up a hefty 0.3 percentage points in a second reading of data published by the KSH Tuesday, compared to the first flash estimate released on November 14. The KSH indicated this was mainly due to the better-than-expected performance of market-based services.

Péter Virovácz of ING Bank said Q4 growth could reach 4.2%, but that this still leaves full-year growth slightly below 4%. He noted that the difference between import and export growth was the biggest since the start of 2003, reflecting higher than expected consumption propping up imports.

Erste Bank ľs Gergely √úrm√∂ssy said the bank has raised its 2017 growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.9% in the light of the big KSH revision.

Dávid Németh of K&H Bank also projected 3.9% growth this year, to be followed by 3.5% in 2018.

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